ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the previous year’s historic high. This figure would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July estimate, with an annual decline of 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year reduction since 2018.
According to the FAO, maize production worldwide is expected to reach 1.309 billion tonnes following poorer crop prospects that lowered earlier estimates. Prolonged summer heat and dry conditions negatively impacted yields across major European Union producing regions, notably France and Poland. In addition, official estimates resulted in downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced unexpectedly high yields, helping to offset these setbacks, and both countries are anticipated to produce well above the average in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production stand at 810.7 million tonnes, marking an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous estimates. Improved yield expectations have boosted projections for Canada and Morocco by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine have been raised, while dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom have led to reduced expectations. Despite the upward adjustments, global wheat production is still predicted to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and would remain the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines contribute to downward revision in global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice output is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from improved yields in Sri Lanka and better figures for Myanmar. These gains offset reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO forecasts global cereal consumption at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, indicating a 0.2% increase compared to the previous season. While rice and coarse grain consumption are expected to rise, wheat use is projected to decline from last season’s high levels. World rice consumption is anticipated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed consumption remains significant for coarse grains, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global cereal inventories remain at historically comfortable levels
At the close of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are projected at 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous forecast but 1.8 million tonnes above opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio worldwide is expected to be 31.6%, slightly down from 31.9% in the previous season. Wheat reserves are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower maize and barley stocks have slightly reduced the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Although higher, this volume remains below the record set in 2025/26. The rise is mainly attributed to increased maize trade, with Argentina projected to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade for 2026 is estimated at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the record in 2025.